Mathematical modeling of smoking dynamics in society with impact of media information and awareness in the case of Mekelle Town

Abstract

This study came up with a mathematical model to examine the smoking dynamics of the Mekelle Town in Ethiopia where the rate of smoking is a rising issue. The study categorized the population in compartments of potential smokers, light smokers, heavy smokers, temporary and permanent quitters, informed non-smokers and media campaign(𝑃𝐿𝐻𝑄 𝑡𝑄 𝑝𝑆𝑚𝑀) based on survey data of 400 respondents throughout four sub-cities. The basic reproduction number was determined to be 1.192555 which proved that smoking is being actively propagated in the community. The sensitivity analysis showed that the most important parameters that increase the rate of diffusion of smoking are contact rate (𝛽 = 0.5454) and the rate of light into heavy smoking (𝛼2 = 0.833), and the rate of elimination among heavy smokers (𝛾= 0.2922) is the most effective to reduce the prevalence. The analysis of the three control measures using the optimal control theory included counseling/education (𝑢1), public smoking prohibition (𝑢2), and treatment of the heavy smokers (𝑢3). The mathematical model proved this combination of all three controls was the most effective and significantly decreased all the populations of smokers, and single interventions or a combination of two interventions were inadequate to overturn the smoking trend. It offers a conclusion that the multi-strategy programs that will work with potential, light, and heavy smokers simultaneously are necessary, with the emphasis on tightening the smoking bans, offering the cessation programs, and continuous local language awareness campaigns, and additional long-term research is needed to prove the effectiveness of the suggested method in the real-life scenario.