DATA MINING-BASED ANALYSIS OF CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO STUDENT DROPOUT: A CASE STUDY OF SECONDARY SCHOOLS IN THE NORTH-WESTERN ZONE OF TIGRAY

Abstract

This study investigates the multifaceted factors contributing to student dropout rates in secondary schools within the North Western Zone of Tigray, Ethiopia, specifically focusing on Shire Preparatory school, Shire General secondary school, Selekleka secondary school, Adi-Daero secondary school, Sheraro secondary school, Semema secondary school, Endabaguna secondary school and the like. The dropout rate in this region averages 12.5%, which means 6840 students (Male=4859, Female=1981) as reported by the Zone/Woredas Education Office in 2024 necessitating an in-depth exploration of underlying causes, which include socio-economic challenges, cultural dynamics, and institutional inadequacies. Employing a mixed-methods research design, this study utilizes quantitative data through surveys distributed to students, teachers, and administrators, alongside qualitative data gathered from interviews and focus group discussions with key stakeholders. Data mining techniques are applied to identify patterns and correlations among various factors influencing dropout rates. Again the study utilized a dataset of 1,200 students and applied descriptive statistics, J48, Naïve Bayes, and Random Forest algorithms to uncover underlying patterns. Results showed that Random Forest achieved the highest accuracy (86.5%), with academic performance, parental education, and school attendance emerging as key predictors. The findings advocate for the integration of predictive models into school-level early warning systems and educational policymaking. From the population, 976 respondents were selected using the random sampling technique from 36 secondary schools across 8 woredas in the North-Western Zone of Tigray, Ethiopia. With a minimum of 65 teachers per school, the research employs data mining techniques to analyze. The results of the research indicated that there are three main factors influencing student’s dropout in secondary school, to be more specific, they are: (i) socioeconomic, (ii) Educational/school, and (iii) psycho-social factors. Based on this findings, it was recommended that the Government, CBO, FBO and NGOs will be provided scholastic materials for the most marginalized or vulnerable students and improve school facility, improve community participation to prevent children’s dropouts, Improve quality of education, strengthen non-formal education and improving and creating new income generating activity in the family