Evaluation of land use/cover change and implication for land management of mountainous landscape in Laygaint, North Ethiopia

Abstract

Land Use Land Cover Change (LULCC) is one of the major human induced global changes. Information on LULCC, the forces and processes behind such changes are essential for proper understanding of how land was being used in the past, what type of changes have occurred and is expected in the future. This study was carried out to examine land use land cover changes and driving forces behind the changes in Laygaint district, north Ethiopia. The main objective of this thesis is to evaluate the land use/cover with its implication of land management and predictable in the future on mountain landscape. It was conducted using satellite image of Landsat5 TM 1990 and 2000, Landsat7 ETM+ 2010 and Landsat8 OIL/TIROS 2023. In addition, field observations, Key informant interview (KII) and Focus Group Discussion (FGD) were also conducted. ArcGIS 10.5 and QGIS (MOLUSCE 3.0.1), soft wares were used for satellite image processing, map preparation and LULCC prediction respectively. The main finding of this study revealed an expansion of agriculture/crop land as well as bare land and reduction of grass land and dense forest over the last 33 years between 1990 and 2023. Crop land/agriculture and bare land increased by 23700ha and 19800ha, with a corresponding 24000ha and 19600ha decline in the area of grass land and dense forest respectively. If the current rate of LULCC continues, bare land is predicted by 23.9% in 2033. In contrast agriculture/crop land, dense forest and grass land are predicted to shrink 60.81%, 0.61% and 2.88% respectively. LULCC in Laygaint is a result of several proximate and underlying drivers. The major proximate driving forces of LULCC in the study area are agricultural expansion, illegal logging and fuel wood extraction, overgrazing and expansion of illegal and unplanned settlements. Demographic, economic, technological, institution and policy, socio-cultural and biophysical factors constitute the major underlying drivers of LULCC in the study area. Hence, the right policy packages are required to control the expansion of agriculture and bare land at the shrink of grass land and dense forest resources in the study area.