unraveling the Cost of War: Estimating the Effect of War Damage on Household's Food and Nutrition Securely in Tigray, Ethiopia.

Abstract

This study investigates the long-term impacts of asset damage resulting from the 2020–2022 Tigray conflict on household food insecurity and dietary diversity in Ethiopia's Tigray region, utilizing a sample of 400 households from the Samre and Bora districts. Employing an instrumental variable (IV) approach with a control function to address endogeneity—using distance to enemy entry gates and neighbor exposure as instruments—the research establishes a causal link between war-induced asset loss and deteriorating nutritional outcomes. Descriptive statistics reveal significant disparities: the "Damage Group" (49.25%, N=197) exhibits younger heads (42.26 years vs. 48.03), higher male headship (76.6% vs. 67.5%), lower education (6.274 vs. 7.517 years), and smaller landholdings (0.563 vs. 0.653 hectares) compared to the "Safe Group" (50.75%, N=203). Critically, only 7.9% of damaged households are food secure (vs. 47.2%), with 73.4% severely insecure (vs. 46.7%), and dietary diversity is markedly lower, with 46.8% in low diversity (vs. 26.4%) and just 6.4% in high diversity (vs. 35.0%). Empirical analysis, grounded in ordered probit and Poisson regressions, confirms these disparities. For food insecurity, asset damage increases the latent severity by 0.703 units (p<0.001), reducing food security probability by 21% and raising severe insecurity by 22.8%, with a 19.3% higher insecurity score (IRR=1.199, p<0.1). For dietary diversity, it decreases the latent variable by 0.928 units (p<0.001), increasing low diversity by 31.8% and reducing high diversity by 30%, with a 37.7% lower Household Dietary Diversity Score (IRR=0.623, p<0.01). Covariates like age, family size, and education modulate these effects, while strong error correlations (ρ=-0.932 for insecurity, ρ=0.958 for diversity) validate the endogeneity correction. The robust instruments—distance (negative, p<0.01) and neighbor exposure (positive, p<0.001)—support causal inference, reflecting conflict proximity and spillover dynamics. These findings underscore a vicious cycle of poverty and malnutrition, with asset destruction eroding productive capacity and resilience, particularly among targeted younger households. The study’s implications extend beyond Tigray, offering evidence for targeted asset restoration, human capital enhancement, and inclusive growth strategies in post-conflict settings. Future research should explore longitudinal recovery, gender-specific impacts, and policy interventions like cash transfers to inform sustainable recovery efforts. Conducted as of May 2025, this analysis provides a critical foundation for addressing Ethiopia’s fragile agrarian vulnerabilities amid ongoing conflict legacies