The Impact of War Damage on Energy Poverty and Energy Choice: Empirical Studies in Woredas Axum and Laelay Machew

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of conflict-induced destruction on household energy poverty and energy choice in the Tigray Central Zone, Ethiopia, following the 2020–2022 war. Using cross-sectional data from 384 households and employing both descriptive and econometric analyses, the research explores how conflictrelated shocks have reshaped energy access and consumption behavior. Descriptive findings reveal high levels of energy poverty, particularly among rural households, with a heavy dependence on traditional biomass fuels and limited access to modern energy sources. Econometric results from Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS), and robust IV regressions demonstrate that conflict-driven energy tool damage significantly exacerbates household energy poverty. Urban residence, by contrast, mitigates energy deprivation through improved infrastructure and access to diversified energy systems. Multinomial Logit (MNL) and Ordered Logit models further indicate that energy tool damage increases the likelihood of reverting to traditional fuels, reflecting adaptive but regressive coping strategies under infrastructure failure. Overall, the findings highlight that energy poverty in conflict-affected settings is shaped more by structural and infrastructural constraints than by individual socioeconomic characteristics such as income or education. The study concludes that post-conflict energy policy should prioritize restoring damaged energy assets, strengthening rural energy infrastructure, and promoting gender-sensitive clean energy interventions to foster equitable and sustainable energy recovery.