Developing an Adaptive Risk Management Framework for International EPC Projects: A Mixed-Methods Study of CGGC’s Belt and Road Initiatives

Abstract

This study examines the risk management practices of China Gezhouba Group Corporation (CGGC) in international Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) projects, with a particular focus on projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Angola, Pakistan, and Argentina. The research investigates the effectiveness of risk identification, assessment, mitigation, monitoring, and dispute resolution mechanisms, aiming to identify gaps and propose actionable improvements. Findings indicate that while CGGC has established foundational risk management procedures, their application is inconsistent across departments and project sites. Technical, financial, and security risks are most frequently identified, whereas social and environmental risks are often underreported or detected late. Risk identification remains heavily project manager–driven, and quantitative risk assessment tools such as probability–impact scoring and Monte Carlo simulations are rarely applied. Risk mitigation strategies vary in consistency and effectiveness, with digital tools and cross-functional coordination underutilized. Monitoring and reporting systems rely primarily on periodic reports and inspections, resulting in delayed responses to fast changing political and security risks. Dispute resolution is predominantly informal, limiting opportunities for institutional learning and systematic documentation. Based on these findings, the study proposes several recommendations to strengthen CGGC’s risk management capabilities. Key measures include standardizing multi-department risk identification, implementing quantitative assessment tools, adopting systematic mitigation protocols, enhancing digital monitoring and real-time reporting, formalizing dispute resolution procedures, and building a knowledge base for lessons learned. The study also introduces an adaptive CGGC–BRI Integrated Risk Management Framework structured around five pillars: Predictive Risk Intelligence, Integrated Data Systems, Cross-Country Knowledge Transfer, Multistakeholder Engagement Protocols, and Continuous Monitoring and Adaptive Response. The proposed framework aligns with ISO 31000, COSO ERM, and established EPC risk management literature, offering a cohesive and proactive approach to managing technical, financial, social, and security risks in complex international projects. Adoption of this framework is expected to enhance CGGC’s resilience, improve project performance, and reduce the likelihood of cost overruns, delays, and disputes in future overseas operations.